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With scorching temperatures gripping India and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting above-normal temperatures for most of the country, the demand for summer essentials is expected to soar. This surge in demand is likely to translate into a bullish run for consumer durables companies, also known as white goods manufacturers, on the Indian stock market.
So far in 2024, consumer durables stocks have already outperformed the broader market. Companies like Voltas, Bluestar, Amber Enterprises, Whirlpool of India, and Symphony have witnessed impressive rallies of up to 50%, leaving the benchmark Nifty 50 index, which gained a modest 2% during the same period.
Analysts bullish on summer staples
Market experts are optimistic about the near future for these companies. Analysts predict further potential growth of up to 11% for Whirlpool India, Symphony, Havells India, and Amber Enterprises. This bullish outlook is driven by the anticipated rise in demand for summer essentials like air coolers, refrigerators, air conditioners (ACs), and fans. The market checks reveal positive feedback from dealers regarding the summer season. Dealers are experiencing strong initial demand and anticipate a robust conclusion to the season. This optimism translates into expectations of summer product sales exceeding current projections. The brokerage firm identifies Symphony, Voltas, Crompton Greaves, and Orient Electric as their preferred picks within the consumer durables sector.
Early heat wave fuels sales surge in southern India
The IMD’s forecast of above-average temperatures aligns with the early onset of summer in southern India. This region has already experienced intense heat waves, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. Consequently, analysts at JM Financial report a significant 200-250% year-on-year surge in sales of air conditioning units in Karnataka and a 30-40% year-on-year increase in Andhra Pradesh for the March-ended quarter (Q4FY24).
Affordable ACs drive growth
While demand is skyrocketing, AC prices have become more attractive in the last year. This trend is attributed to factors like increased localization of production, government initiatives like Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, and favorable commodity prices. Copper and aluminum prices, crucial for AC manufacturing, have both decreased by 5% on a monthly basis in March.
Industry experts look forward to continued growth
Based on their channel checks, JM Financial estimates that Voltas, Bluestar, and Haier sold approximately 2 million, 1-1.1 million, and 0.7-0.9 million AC units respectively in FY24. The brokerage firm predicts a robust 13-15% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the AC industry over the next 2-3 years.
Factors driving growth in the consumer durables sector
Analysts identify several factors contributing to the projected growth in the consumer durables sector:
- Increased affordability: Localization and PLI schemes are expected to make ACs more accessible to a wider consumer base.
- Low market penetration: With a significant portion of the Indian population yet to own ACs, there’s immense potential for market expansion.
- Strong summer: The scorching summers experienced in recent years are likely to continue, driving demand for cooling solutions.
- Rising disposable incomes: As disposable incomes increase; consumers are expected to invest in appliances that enhance their comfort levels.
- Easy financing options: The availability of convenient financing options can further stimulate consumer spending on consumer durables.
- Shift towards premiumization: A growing trend towards premium features and functionalities in appliances is likely to boost the market.
Investing in the Heat: A potential opportunity
With the summer season upon us and the outlook for consumer durables companies remaining positive, investors may find opportunities within this sector. By carefully researching individual companies, analyzing their financial performance, and considering expert opinions, investors can potentially position themselves to benefit from the anticipated rise in demand for summer essentials. However, it’s crucial to remember that the stock market is inherently volatile, and conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential.