India’s debt-to-GDP ratio could inch closer to 100% by 2030 if the government attempts to fill the 3.4% of GDP annual gap in climate mitigation and adaptation, according to a recent report by Moody’s Ratings. The agency highlights the financial challenges posed by climate change investments, especially for emerging markets (EMs), noting that India may face a steeper financial burden than most comparable economies—excluding South Africa and Brazil. Moody’s projects India’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 78% by 2030 under a baseline scenario. However, this figure could skyrocket to nearly 100% if the government fully funds the climate adaptation and mitigation gap alone. In comparison, South Africa and Brazil are also expected to experience significant debt increases, given their already high debt burdens.

The report emphasizes that South Africa, Brazil, and India would see the largest jumps in debt ratios among emerging markets due to limited fiscal buffers and high levels of existing debt. If India chooses to shoulder the climate burden independently, its debt profile could worsen significantly. Moody’s also outlines how climate-related spending could affect other major economies. In the United States, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 11 percentage points, reaching 137% from the current 126% by 2030. For African nations, the jump would be even more severe—around 40 percentage points—while Brazil and Mexico would see rises of 21 and 18 percentage points, respectively. The report warns that while climate investments will escalate government spending and debt levels, the cost of inaction is far greater. According to Moody’s, emerging markets in Asia, including India, stand to gain significantly from early and coordinated investments in clean energy. This shift could lead to substantial income growth, reducing long-term economic risks.

India’s financial burden could be alleviated if the government can involve the private sector in climate mitigation and adaptation. In such a scenario, Moody’s projects the debt-to-GDP ratio would only increase by eight percentage points, reaching 86% by 2030. This outcome would be significantly less than the nearly 100% projection if the government assumes the full financial responsibility. By contrast, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico would still witness larger jumps in debt ratios even with private-sector participation.

The report also highlights that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank advocate for carbon pricing as the most effective mitigation strategy. Carbon pricing can drive behavioral shifts toward reduced energy use and a transition to low-carbon fuels. Such measures could help offset some of the financial burden on governments, including India. India faces a hefty climate bill, with Moody’s estimating the cost of climate mitigation to be around $186 billion annually until 2030. Climate adaptation would require less than half of that amount each year. If private sector investment plays a significant role, the government’s annual expenditure on climate mitigation could drop to just 1.3% of GDP.

While India faces tough choices in meeting its climate goals, the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio could rise substantially if the government bears the full cost of climate adaptation and mitigation. However, through strategic partnerships with the private sector and efficient policy tools like carbon pricing, India could reduce the financial strain while securing long-term economic and environmental benefits. Investing in climate action is a necessity, and balancing fiscal responsibility with these commitments will be crucial for India and other emerging markets navigating this complex landscape.

Singapore is well-known for being a financial hub and high-tech manufacturing hotbed as well as an attractive destination for visitors. It is also an appealing business centre where many global companies have based their Asian headquarters. What is not very well-known is that Singapore is one of the most important oil trading and refining centres in the world. In fact, it is one of the top three oil trading and refining centres in the world. With a total crude refining capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day, it is the world’s fourth-largest exporter of refined petroleum, fuels and chemicals. Key players in the sector, and related industries like builders of offshore rigs and floaters, also site their regional headquarters on the island.

In 2020, output from the oil and gas and petrochemical industries here was valued at about USD 60 billion but this figure fluctuates a fair bit due to the volatile price of oil. The petrochemical industry in Singapore accounts for 23 per cent of the nation’s total merchandise trade, five per cent of GDP and employs almost 30,000 people. As a comparison, manufacturing is about 30 per cent of the GDP and employs close to half a million people and financial services which makes up around 15 per cent of the economy hires over 200,000 people.

When British energy giant Shell announced in June that it would assess the viability of its refining and manufacturing facilities on Bukom and Jurong islands, it was met with a little bit of consternation in the country. The talk in the industry is of divestiture, repurposing, or even closure if a suitable buyer or buyers cannot be found. That Shell is doing so should not be a surprise as it’s a reflection of a trend and challenges faced by the petroleum industry across the world due to a move towards renewable sources of energy.

Already in March, Shell made a decision not to go ahead with two projects it said it was studying to produce biofuels and base oils in Singapore. The project had it proceeded, would be sited on Bukom Island and have the capacity to produce 550,00 tonnes per year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to supply major Asian aviation hubs such as Hong Kong International Airport and Singapore’s Changi.

The plant would also have the flexibility to produce renewable diesel and bionaphtha feedstock for petrochemicals. If Shell, which has been in Singapore for over 130 years, does withdraw from Singapore, it is by no means the first major European oil company to do so. BP (formerly British Petroleum) closed its refining business in Singapore in 2004 and sold its stake in Singapore Refining Company in 2004 to PetroChina and Chevron. Like other petrochemical and plastics suppliers, Shell is reducing its dependence on these two energy-intensive products as a way to shrink its carbon footprint and become a net zero emitter by 2050. Shell’s Energy Transition initiative will see it become more of a natural gas giant than an oil major.

Singapore as a nation has committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. In its Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS), it said that it plans to reduce emissions Intensity by 36 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 and stabilise greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030. However, industry and government officials believe that demand for fuels, lubricants and petrochemicals will continue to be robust for many years to come especially in the emerging markets which surround Singapore. The city-state which has a natural deep-water harbour occupies a strategic spot where the Straits of Malacca intersects the South China Sea and is within close shipping distance to these rapidly growing markets where need for these products will remain strong for decades.

Contrary to Shell, ExxonMobil, the number one energy company in the world by revenue, said it has been growing its business in Singapore to meet the increasing demand for its products across the region. Geraldine Chin, chairman and managing director of ExxonMobil Asia Pacific, told Singapore’s Straits Times, “When we invest, it is for the long term, through the ups and downs of business cycles.” She expects that demand for cleaner fuels and lubricants will grow across Asia and these can be developed from bottom-of-the-barrel products which her company is deploying proprietary technology to produce.

Feeling the pressure from the global greening trend on the industry here, the Singapore government plans to transform Jurong Island into a sustainable energy and chemicals park. The island which opened in 2000, was created as a petrochemicals hub by amalgamating seven islands, is emerging as a major exporter of sustainable fuels, recycled chemicals and renewable feedstocks for making industrial chemicals and plastics.

Singapore also plans to be a leading regional centre for carbon trading, green finance, consulting and risk management, and other services. Damian Chan, executive vice-president at the Economic Development Board, said, “We have continued to see a healthy flow of investments from energy and chemicals companies which are keen to expand their global presence, grow new capabilities to capture green growth opportunities in the region, and transform their business to be environmentally sustainable.”

The summer of 2023 is “a summer of extremes” due to the scorching heat, wildfires and floods that have resulted in major damage to people’s health and the environment, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said. Clare Nullis, the spokesperson for the WMO, said at a press briefing here on Friday that dangerous weather, including intense heat and devastating rainfall, has impacted large parts of the world in this “summer of extremes”, reports Xinhua news agency. She said many new station temperature records around the world were broken in July, and the start of August also saw a winter heat wave in parts of South America.

In a series of updates on extreme weather, WMO said earlier this week that many countries like France, Greece, Italy, Spain, Algeria and Tunisia all reported new maximum daytime and overnight station temperature records. Large parts of the US have also been gripped by extensive heat waves. “We need to broaden the focus beyond maximum temperatures because the minimum temperature is most important for health and critical infrastructure,” said WMO extreme heat senior advisor John Nairn. WMO pointed out that heatwaves are among the deadliest natural hazards with thousands of people dying from heat-related causes each year, while the full impact of a heatwave is often not known until weeks or months afterwards.

Records broken all over the world

According to WMO, sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean are set to be exceptionally high in the coming days and weeks, exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in some parts, and more than 4 degrees Celsius above average in a large part of the western Mediterranean. WMO believes that the impacts of marine heatwaves include migration of species and extinctions, arrival of invasive species with consequences for fisheries and aquaculture. Speaking at Friday’s press briefing, the WMO spokesperson also said that Canada is experiencing its worst wildfire season on record. In Canada, record-breaking wildfires continue to burn big forest areas. More than 650 wildfires were out of control as of July 24.

And earlier this week WMO said wildfires had forced evacuation of hundreds of residents and tourists on the Greek islands of Rhodes, Evia and Corfu since July 17. The emissions of these wildfires have reached record levels. Heavy rains and flooding also caused severe damage and loss of life in parts of the world. “As the planet warms, the expectation is that we will see more and more intense, more frequent, more severe rainfall events, leading also to more severe flooding,” said Stefan Uhlenbrook, director of hydrology, water and cryosphere at WMO. WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas noted that “the extreme weather — an increasingly frequent occurrence in our warming climate — is having a major impact on human health, ecosystems, economies, agriculture, energy and water supplies”. “This underlines the increasing urgency of cutting greenhouse gas emissions as quickly and as deeply as possible,” said Taalas.

Five people were arrested after climate activists draped a black cloth over UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s private North Yorkshire home in protest against his policy to “max out” the country’s oil and gas resources in the North Sea. On Thursday, the demonstrators from Greenpeace Environmental managed to climb onto the house located near Sunak’s constituency of Richmond, reports CNN. They used ladders and climbing ropes to access the roof, where they unravelled 200 square meters of “oil-black fabric” to cover part of the mansion, Greenpeace said in a statement.

Members of the group also unfurled a banner across the lawn which read: “Rishi Sunak – Oil Profits or Our Future?” Also in a tweet, the group said: “NEWS FLASH: The science is clear, for a safe climate there must be NO NEW oil and gas projects… Rishi Sunak you can’t be serious about approving more oil and gas?” A spokesperson for North Yorkshire Police said officers had “contained the area” and no one had entered the building, the BBC reported. A large cordon was put in place and specialist police liaison officers were used to bring the protesters down from the roof of the property. In a statement, Assistant Chief Constable Elliot Foskett, said: “There was no threat to the wider public throughout this incident which has now been brought to a safe conclusion.”

To ensure the UK’s energy security 

Of the five people, two men and two women were arrested on suspicion of causing criminal damage and public nuisance, while the remaining person was also arrested on suspicion of causing a public nuisance. North Yorkshire Police said all those arrested remained in police custody. The Prime Minister’s Office confirmed neither Sunak nor his family were present at the time of the incident, the BBC reported. Condemning the incident, Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said he thought the British people were “sick of these stupid stunts”. Labour’s shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper called it “disgraceful”.

The protest was in response to the UK government’s plans, unveiled on Monday to issue hundreds of licenses to drill for oil and gas in the North Sea, Sunak said that he hoped the project would provide the UK with domestically-sourced energy while it transitions to a net zero economy by 2050. He also announced plans to build two new carbon capture and storage sites, to be completed by 2030, reports CNN. His office said the first 100 drilling licenses are expected to be approved in the fall, “unlocking vital reserves which can be brought online faster”.

After his China trip, the United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, John Kerry is scheduled to undertake a five-day visit to India on Tuesday to discuss climate and clean energy. During his visit from July 25 to 29, Kerry will visit Delhi and Chennai. In Delhi, Secretary Kerry will meet with senior government officials. Kerry’s visit is to advance shared objectives on climate and clean energy, including mutual efforts to build a platform for investments in renewable energy and storage solutions, support the deployment of zero-emission buses, and diversify clean energy supply chains, the US State Department said in a statement.

“In Chennai, Secretary Kerry will attend the G20 Environment and Climate Sustainability Ministers Meeting,” the statement read. Notably, the G-20’s environment and climate sustainability ministers will meet on July 28 in Chennai. Kerry’s visit to India came at a time when New Delhi is focussing more on sustainable energy. Recently, on Saturday, in a video message to the G20 Energy Ministerial Meeting in Goa, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India now plans to achieve 50 per cent non-fossil installed capacity by the year 2030.

Impact on all nations

“No talk about the future, sustainability or growth and development can be complete without energy. It impacts development at all levels, from individuals to nations,” the Prime Minister said at the meeting that brought together ministers from the countries in the G20 grouping. He pointed out that India is among the global leaders in solar and wind power and is making great efforts in green growth and energy transition.

Earlier, US climate envoy John Kerry ended his four-day visit to China on July 19 without any new agreements. In fact, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, insisted in a speech that China would pursue its goals to phase out carbon dioxide pollution at its own pace and in its own way.

Still, Kerry appeared buoyed that the world’s two biggest polluters had restarted discussions, which had been frozen for a year because of strained relations over Taiwan, trade and other issues. He insisted he was not disappointed in the outcome, noting that just talking marked progress, according to the Washington Post.

“We had very frank conversations but we came here to break new ground,” Kerry said, adding, “It is clear that we are going to need a little more work.”

Around 19,000 people have been evacuated from the Greek island of Rhodes as of Sunday as wildfires raged for a sixth day on three fronts, according to Greek authorities. According to the Ministry of Climate Change and Civil Protection, this was “the largest evacuation from a wildfire in the country.”

According to the local police, 12 villages, many hotels, and 16,000 people were evacuated by land and 3,000 by sea. Six patients with respiratory issues were admitted for a limited period of time before being released. Authorities report that a pregnant woman who fractured her leg during a hotel evacuation and a person who slipped and shattered their leg both remain hospitalised.

Residents and tourists flee wildfires in Greece. The temperature is 113 degrees Fahrenheit. pic.twitter.com/NQ85pGY5RF

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) July 22, 2023

Tour agencies cancel flights amid a chaotic evacuation

Flights to Rhodes have been cancelled by travel package providers TUI and Jet2. Jet2 announced that it was rescheduling five of its Sunday departures for Rhodes. It declared that it will transport customers back to Rhodes on five empty aircraft. TUI announced that it will stop operating any flights to the island until at least Tuesday.

With his wife and three young children, British tourist Kevin Evans was twice evacuated on Saturday, first from Kiotari to Gennadi and then as the fire got closer to the island’s capital in the northeast, he told a British news agency. He further added, “There were lots of people in Gennadi sent from the hotels — many in just swimsuits having been told to leave everything in the hotel. As night fell, we could see the fire on the top of the hills in Kiotari. They said all the hotels were on fire.”

Rhodes travel agent Stelios Kotiadis said that the evacuation was conducted in haste.  He said, “There was panic… The authorities were overwhelmed.” He further added that the abandoned hotels “are in much better condition than reported in social media. … They will be ready to reopen very soon if Civil Protection gives the go-ahead.”