Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present the Union Budget 2024-25 in Parliament during the third week of July. This will be the first budget following the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) third consecutive victory, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Fiscal deficit and borrowing

• Fiscal deficit: Revised down to 5.8% of GDP from the previous target of 5.9%. The fiscal deficit for 2024-25 is estimated at 5.1%.
• Gross borrowing: Estimated at ₹14.13 lakh crore.
• Net borrowing: Projected at ₹11.75 lakh crore for FY25.

Defense allocation

• Defense budget: Increased by 4% to ₹6.2 lakh crore, up from ₹5.94 lakh crore in FY24.

Tax structure and revenue

• Tax structure: No changes to direct or indirect taxes.
• Tax benefits: Extensions for start-ups and investments by sovereign wealth funds or pension funds until March 31, 2025.
• Revenue receipts: Estimated at ₹30 lakh crore, up from ₹26.99 lakh crore in the previous fiscal year.

Social and economic initiatives

• Mudra yojana loans: 30 crore loans given to women entrepreneurs.
• STEM education: Women and girls now constitute 43% of enrolment in STEM courses.
• PM Awas Yojana: Over 70% of houses allotted to women in rural areas.
• Cervical cancer vaccination: Encouragement for vaccination of girls aged 9-14.

Capital expenditure

• Capex outlay: Increased by 11% to ₹11.11 lakh crore (3.4% of GDP).
• Rail bogies: Conversion of 40,000 normal rail bogies to Vande Bharat Standards to enhance passenger safety and comfort.

Housing initiatives

• PM Awas Yojana (Grameen): Targeting to build an additional two crore houses over the next five years.
• New housing scheme: Aimed at helping the middle class buy or build houses.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured a third term in office, but the BJP fell short of a full majority by 32 seats, necessitating coalition support from key allies like JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar and TDP’s chief Chandrababu Naidu. This coalition victory has significant implications for the real estate market, bringing much-needed policy certainty and bolstering investor confidence.

The scale of the BJP’s victory has delivered unprecedented policy certainty, which is crucial for the real estate sector. Political stability and clear government policies directly influence investor confidence, affecting real estate investment decisions positively.

Key policies and reforms

New Tenancy Act:

The government’s new tenancy act has revitalized the rental housing market by introducing accountability measures and transparency in rental agreements.

Stressed Asset Fund:

The ₹25,000 crore stressed asset fund reflects the government’s commitment to addressing stalled housing projects. Offering priority debt has restored buyer confidence, leading to a swift revival of construction activities across major markets.

Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme (CLSS):

The extension of CLSS under PMAY until December 2024 has significantly boosted demand.

Realty Stress Fund:

The establishment of a ₹60,000 crore realty stress fund has provided crucial last-mile funding to builders, allowing them to resume construction projects.

RERA and Consumer Protection:

Institutionalization of RERA across states to enhance consumer protection and developer accountability.

Urban Infrastructure Initiatives:

Initiatives like Smart City, AMRUT, and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) have increased demand in the real estate sector post-elections. These efforts focus on improving urban infrastructure and providing affordable housing, thereby enhancing the quality of life in cities.

Structural Reforms:

Government’s focus on structural reforms to liberalize the economy, particularly in infrastructure and renewable energy sectors. Anticipated reforms in land acquisition and business practices are expected to attract increased investor interest and spur further growth in the industry.

Prime Minister Modi’s third term has brought stability and policy certainty, crucial for the real estate market. The government’s commitment to reforms and infrastructure development has bolstered investor confidence, leading to a positive outlook for the sector. With continued political stability and strategic initiatives, the real estate market is poised for significant growth in the coming years.

India’s Lok Sabha election results have a significant impact on the country’s stock market, as investors closely watch the outcome to understand the potential political landscape and its impact on the economy. Let’s delve into how the recent election results have affected the stock market in India, and explore the implications for both domestic and foreign investors.

After the exit polls projected a two-thirds majority for the ruling BJP-led alliance, the stock market saw a significant drop, erasing all gains from the previous day. The fear of uncertainty and concerns about the market’s sustainability led to a sharp decline in various sectors. Bank stocks fell by 7.8%, realty dropped by 9.1%, and infrastructure declined by 10.5%. The volatility index surged to its highest level since March 2022 as investors reacted to the exit poll results.

Chief market strategist at Geojit Financial, highlighted the market’s negative reaction to exit polls that indicated a clear victory for the ruling party. Despite the majority projection, the market’s volatility gauge remained high, signaling underlying unease among investors. Head of equity research at William O’Neil and Company, emphasized that the market’s expectations were not met, leading to disappointment and a subsequent market correction.

The global market also reacted to India’s election results, with Asian share markets showing mixed responses. The MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares declined by 0.4%, while U.S. stocks registered mild gains. The Euro Stoxx and German DAX futures were down, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Additionally, the U.S. labor market data was closely watched, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut later in the year.

In light of the election results, market analysts anticipate further market corrections as investor sentiment stabilizes. The focus will shift towards policy announcements and reforms, with a particular emphasis on BJP’s mandate and its implications for the economy. As global markets await India’s official election results, the stock market is expected to witness continued volatility in the coming sessions.

The Lok Sabha election results have triggered a significant market reaction, leading to widespread fluctuations in various sectors. Investors are closely monitoring the political landscape and its impact on India’s economy. As the market adjusts to the election outcomes, analysts foresee a period of uncertainty followed by potential policy changes and reforms. Amidst the volatility, investors are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor market developments for informed decision-making.

Goldman Sachs throws its weight behind India’s booming economy! Their analysts see Indian stocks, bonds, and the rupee currency as some of the most attractive options in emerging markets. Here’s why:

Strong fundamentals drive growth:

• Soaring stock market: Healthy corporate earnings are fueling a strong Indian stock market.
• Bond market boom: India’s inclusion in major international bond indexes, coupled with improving government finances and moderating inflation, makes Indian bonds highly attractive.
• Rupee’s allure: Ample foreign exchange reserves position the rupee as a top choice for carry trade strategies (investing in high-yielding currencies).

India’s “Come for Stability, Stay for Growth” advantage:

• Low volatility: Indian assets offer investors a relatively stable environment with lower sensitivity to external market fluctuations.
• High yields: Indian fixed income (bonds) provides attractive returns compared to other options.

Landmark events  on the horizon:

• Upcoming elections: Prime Minister Modi’s re-election bid is a near-term factor for financial markets.
• Bond market inclusion: India’s inclusion in JPMorgan’s influential emerging market bond index (expected in late June) could attract a staggering $40 billion in foreign investment.

Long-term focus on domestic strength:

Goldman Sachs acknowledges the short-term impact of the elections but emphasizes that India’s long-term economic health is the primary driver of asset returns.

Considering an investment in emerging markets? Look no further than India! Its strong fundamentals, attractive yields, and stable environment make it a compelling option for investors seeking long-term growth.

Today, the Indian stock market witnessed a surge in buying activity, propelling both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 to unprecedented record highs. The Nifty 50 commenced the day at 22,614.10, marking a significant leap from its previous close of 22,597.80, ultimately reaching a peak of 22,959.70 during the trading session—a notable 1.6% increase. Similarly, the Sensex started at 74,253.53, surpassing its previous close of 74,221.06, and surged to an intraday high of 75,407.39, also a 1.6% rise.

By 2:35 pm, the Sensex was up by 1.30% at 75,182, while the Nifty 50 showed a 1.33% increase at 22,898. Additionally, the Nifty Midcap index and the Small cap index 100 experienced gains of 0.30% and 0.05%, respectively, at that juncture.

Here are the key factors driving today’s market euphoria:

Election optimism

With the fading of election-related uncertainties, the market is witnessing a surge in optimism. Investors are now focusing on acquiring quality stocks, anticipating sustained political stability post Lok Sabha elections.

Positive macro indicators

The Reserve Bank of India’s announcement of a record ₹2.11 lakh crore dividend to the Centre for FY24 has bolstered market sentiment. This infusion of funds is expected to provide the government with additional fiscal maneuverability, potentially boosting infrastructure spending and reducing fiscal deficit.

Banking sector momentum

Shares of leading banks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank are driving market gains. The significant drop in India’s 10-year bond yields, following the RBI’s dividend payout, has particularly buoyed banking stocks.

Domestic institutional investment

Despite foreign institutional investors offloading Indian equities this month, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have exhibited strong buying behavior. DIIs have injected ₹38,331 crore into Indian stocks in the cash segment until May 22, offsetting the outflow from FIIs.

Technical outlook

The Nifty 50’s breakthrough past crucial resistance levels and the formation of a robust support base indicate a positive trajectory. Analysts foresee the index reaching the 23,000 mark by month-end, supported by aggressive put options writing and strong technical indicators.

Today’s market surge underscores the resilience and potential of the Indian stock market, fueled by a convergence of favorable economic indicators and investor confidence.

Prepare for the 2024 Indian general elections as Prime Minister Narendra Modi vies for a historic third term! With the potential for market fluctuations looming, it’s imperative to grasp the implications of this significant political event on your investments.

The elections, spanning from April 19 to June 1, hold substantial weight, influencing everything from personal savings to national economic policies. As market sentiments already express confidence in the continuity of the Modi government, investors are deliberating their choices across various asset classes.

Expert opinions offer diverse perspectives on navigating this period of uncertainty:

1. Chief Investment Officer at MojoPMS, maintains a bullish outlook on Indian equities, anticipating significant growth in the medium to long term. Despite short-term uncertainties, he advises focusing on long-term gains.
2. Geojit Financial Services suggests that while the market has priced in a BJP victory, attention will shift to the transformative Budget. He recommends a multi-asset investment strategy with a primary emphasis on equity.
3. Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities, promotes diversification by incorporating gold and long-tenure debt into portfolios. He highlights upcoming events such as the election results and US elections as potential sources of market volatility.
4. Head of Research at Ventura Securities, underscores equities as the premier investment choice for the next five years, proposing a buy-on-dips approach. He suggests diversification through precious metals, agricultural commodities, and high-yield fixed income for seniors.
5. Head of Fundamental and Quantitative Research at Axis Securities, foresees premium valuations for Indian corporates and expects double-digit returns from equities in FY25. He positions equities favorably against other asset classes.

As the electoral landscape unfolds, it’s crucial to stay informed and consider diverse investment strategies to effectively navigate potential market shifts. Whether you opt for equities, gold, debt, or a combination thereof, understanding the insights provided by these experts can help you make informed decisions amidst the evolving political and economic landscape of India’s 2024 general elections.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Friday hit out at the Opposition as they staged a walkout from the Lok Sabha during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reply to the motion of no confidence and said that their walkout exposed their design that they had nothing to do with Manipur. He also said that the Opposition just wanted to disrupt the Parliament. “Opposition demanded that PM Modi should speak on Manipur and when he started speaking they walked out. That completely exposed their design that the intention of the opposition was nothing to do with Manipur. They just wanted to disrupt the Parliament,” CM Sarma said.

The chief minister also praised PM Modi’s speech and said he spoke from his heart adding that he showed his affection for the people of Manipur. “PM Modi spoke from his heart. He also showed his affection for the people of Manipur. As a principal party, they should have listened to Prime Minister’s speech till the last,” CM Sarma said. As the Prime Minister was taking on the Opposition on several issues, the members of I.N.D.I.A bloc staged a walkout from the House, literally making the Opposition benches empty. However, the no-confidence motion was defeated in the Lok Sabha. The NDA defeated the no-confidence motion comfortably with a voice vote in the Lok Sabha.

Meanwhile, PM Modi on Thursday, while speaking on a no-confidence motion in Lok Sabha, assured for strictest punishment for the accused who indulged in crimes against women. Asserting that state and central government are working to restore peace in Manipur, the PM said that the government is taking steps to bring normalcy there. “Both the state and central governments are doing everything possible to ensure that the accused get the strictest punishment. I want to assure the people that peace will be restored in Manipur in the coming time,” PM Modi said while replying to the no-confidence motion against his government. “There are serious crimes against women and they are unforgivable,” he added. He further said the country is with the people of Manipur.

“I want to tell people of Manipur including women and daughters of Manipur that the country is with you,” he added.

The opposition moved a no-confidence motion against the Modi government on July 26 which was taken up by Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. The three days of the motion witnessed a fierce battle between the ruling and the Opposition coalitions over the Manipur violence and other raging issues.

The ongoing session of Parliament is set to conclude on Friday after three weeks of turmoil, during which the Opposition and treasury benches faced off on the issue of ethnic violence in Manipur. Meanwhile, the suspension of the Congress MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who is also the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha is likely to dominate proceedings in the Lower House. Congress Parliamentary Party Chairperson Sonia Gandhi has called a meeting of party Lok Sabha MPs today morning to discuss the suspension of Chowdhury. The meeting is scheduled to be held at the party’s parliamentary office at 10:30 am. According to the listed legislative business in Lok Sabha, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will introduce the Central Goods and Services Tax (Amendment) Bill, 2023. The Centre is set to push legislation in Lok Sabha to impose a 28 per cent Goods and Services Tax (GST) for online gaming, casinos and horse racing.

Sitharaman will also introduce the Integrated Goods and Services Tax (Amendment) Bill, 2023. Both bills will be discussed for consideration and passage. YSRCP MP Reddeppa Nallakonda Gari will move a private member resolution on the ‘Beautification and Modernization of Railway Stations under the Adarsh Station Scheme’ in the Lower House.

Meanwhile, in Rajya Sabha CPI MP Binoy Viswam will move a private member resolution to formulate a Gig Workers’ Rights Bill with provisions for mandatory registration of aggregators and workers, issuance of unique IDs, provision of minimum wages, levying of fees for social security benefits and creation of a Gig-Workers’ Welfare Fund under a Gig-Workers’ Welfare Board to look after the welfare of gig-workers and their dependents. CPI MP John Brittas will move a private member resolution to take steps to amend Section 18 of the Constitution (One Hundred and First Amendment) Act, 2016, so as to provide compensation to the States for the loss of revenue arising on account of implementation of the GST for a total period of ten years.

RJD MP Manoj Jha has given a suspension of business notice in Rajya Sabha seeking discussion on the situation in Manipur. He further demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi makes a statement on the Manipur issue in the Upper House. “I would like to move a motion for the adjournment of the business of the House Under Rule 267 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in Rajya Sabha to discuss the Union and State Government’s failure to restore peace and maintain law and order in the state of Manipur which has led to the violation of fundamental rights of the citizens of Manipur and therefore it is demanded that the Prime Minister makes a statement on the floor of the house regarding this issue which should be followed by a detailed and comprehensive discussion,” the notice read. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday took part in the no-confidence motion debate and described the violence-hit Manipur as a “piece of one’s heart”.

PM Modi said that all efforts will be made to restore peace in the northeastern state which will soon walk the path of progress. “The north-east is our ‘jigar ka tukda’. The problems of Manipur are presented in such a manner as if they had begun in the recent past,” PM Modi said. The no-confidence motion was defeated in the Lok Sabha. The NDA defeated the no-confidence motion comfortably with a voice vote in the Lok Sabha. The opposition moved a no-confidence motion against the Modi government on July 26 which was taken up by Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, whose parliamentary membership was restored on Monday, is likely to open the discussion on the no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday. Manipur set to dominate the three-day debate commencing on Tuesday noon in the Lok Sabha on the opposition’s no-confidence motion. Meanwhile, INDIA party’s floor leaders meeting will be held at 10 am in the Parliament to chalk out the strategy for the floor of the house, important discussion on the no-confidence motion is to be taken up in Lok Sabha. The Narendra Modi-led NDA Government will face a no-confidence motion. The no-confidence motion was moved by the opposition parties of I.N.D.I.A bloc which was accepted by Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla.

According to sources, a time of 12 hours has been fixed for the discussion. The ruling BJP will get around seven hours to partake in the discussion and around one hour 15 minutes has been allotted for the Congress party. YSRCP, Shiv Sena, JDU, BJD, BSP, BRS and LJP have been given a total of 2 hours, which has been divided according to the number of party’s MPs in the House. AÂ time limit of 1 hour 10 minutes has been allotted for other parties and independent MPs. The debate on the no-confidence motion against the BJP-led government is likely to take place on August 8 and 9 in the Lok Sabha and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to give a reply on August 10.

According to the listed legislative business of Rajya Sabha for the day, Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is to move the Interservices Organisations (Command, Control and Discipline) Bill, 2023 in the Rajya Sabha for consideration and passage. The bill will move to the Upper House to empower the Commander-in-Chief or the Officer-in Command of Inter-services Organisations in respect of service personnel who are subject to the Air Force Act, 1950, the Army Act, 1950 and the Navy Act, 1957, who are serving under or attached to his command for the maintenance of discipline and proper discharge of their duties. The Bill was earlier passed by the Lok Sabha.

Meanwhile, Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan will also move the Indian Institutes of Management (Amendment) Bill, 2023 in the Rajya Sabha for consideration and passage to amend the Indian Institutes of Management Act, 2017. The Bill was earlier passed by the Lok Sabha. Moreover, Ministry of Heavy Industries Krishan Pal, Ministry of Home Affairs Nityanand Rai, Ministry of Finance Pankaj Chaudhary, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Shobha Karandlaje, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Kailash Choudhary, Ministry of Home Affairs Ajay Kumar and Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports Nisith Pramanik to lay the papers on the table. According to the revised list of business, Jasbir Singh Gill is to present the Seventh Report (Hindi and English versions) of the Committee on Empowerment of Women (2022-23) on the subject ‘Health Facilities for Tribal Women’.

The reports of standing committee on education, women, children, youth and sports, Dharambir Singh and Ratansinh Magansinh Rathod to to lay reports on 352nd report on action taken by the Government on the recommendations/observations contained in the 348th Report on ‘Demands for Grants 2023-24 of the Department of Higher Education, Ministry of Education’.

Meanwhile, Krishan Pal to make the following statements regarding the status of implementation of the recommendations contained in the 311th Report of the Standing Committee on Industry on Action Taken by the Government on the recommendations/observations contained in the 306th Report of the Committee on Demands for Grants (2021-2022) pertaining to the Ministry of Heavy Industries, the status of implementation of the recommendations contained in the 316th Report of the Standing Committee on Industry on Demands for Grants (2022-2023) pertaining to the Ministry of Heavy Industries, the status of implementation of the recommendations contained in the 319th Report of the Standing Committee on Industry on Action Taken by the Government on the recommendations/ observations contained in the 316th Report of the Committee on Demands for Grants (2022-2023) pertaining to the Ministry of Heavy Industries, and the status of implementation of the recommendations contained in the 321st Report of the Standing Committee on Industry on Demands for Grants (2023-2024) pertaining to the Ministry of Heavy Industries

Congress MP Manish Tewari on Friday gave an adjournment motion notice in the Lok Sabha to discuss the border situation with China. In his letter to the Secretary-General, Lok Sabha, Manish Tewari said, “I hereby give notice of my intention to ask for leave to move a motion for the adjournment of the business of the house for the purpose of discussing a definite matter of urgent importance, namely: That this House do suspend Zero Hour and relevant rules relating to Question Hour and other businesses of the day to have a discussion on the border situation with China.” He further urged the Government to inform the House of the situation at the border with China adding that reports are coming out from Chushul, Eastern Ladakh that China’s People Liberation Army (PLA) has pitched four tents in a “buffer zone” and their forces are demanding a 15-20 km Buffer Zone inside Indian territory.

“The border situation with China has been extremely tense since clashes broke out with Chinese forces in Eastern Arunachal Pradesh. Despite multiple rounds of talks between India and China, the border dispute continues to persist. Moreover, there have been reports coming out from Chushul, Eastern Ladakh, that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has pitched four tents in a buffer zone, and has demanded a 15-20 km Buffer Zone inside Indian territory,” the letter stated. “Thus, in light of the aforementioned, I, therefore urge the Government to inform the House of the situation at the border with China, the attempts made by the Government to mediate and settle the border dispute, and the policies introduced by the Government to preserve and protect India’s integrity against possible Chinese aggression,” it added.

Meanwhile, the party floor leaders of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) will hold a meeting today at 10 am in the office of the Leader of the opposition in Rajya Sabha in Parliament to chalk out the strategy for the floor of the house. The Parliament has been witnessing a logjam over a number of issues, including the violence in Manipur, since the beginning of the Monsoon Session on July 20. The opposition leaders have been demanding a full-fledged discussion on the issue including a statement by the prime minister in the Parliament. Both houses — Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha — have seen repeated adjournments amid massive ruckus by the opposition leaders.