Indian government bond yields edged higher in early trade on Monday as investors braced for the upcoming Union Budget and digested the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) surprise debt sale.

The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 6.9748%, nearing the crucial 6.98% level. The central bank’s decision to offload bonds worth Rs 3,405 crore through secondary market operations caught market participants off guard, as the banking system currently holds a surplus of liquidity.

While the move was unexpected, market experts like Sandeep Yadav, fixed income head at DSP Mutual Fund, had anticipated such a step. Yadav recommends investors consider bonds with maturities of 20 years or more.

All eyes are now on the Union Budget, scheduled for Tuesday. The fiscal deficit target and gross borrowing figure will be closely watched by market participants. Median forecasts suggest a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP and gross borrowing of Rs 14.13 trillion.

The upcoming auction of benchmark bonds on Friday is also expected to influence market sentiment. Traders anticipate potential selling pressure as participants adjust their positions ahead of the auction.

Tight liquidity conditions are likely to persist until July 2024 before government spending picks up. The 10-year yield is anticipated to trade within the 6.80% to 7.15% range in H1 FY2025, with possible hardening towards the upper end based on the timing of rate cuts by major central banks.

An overview of the major points is as below:

Liquidity deficit emerges amid rising government cash balances

After experiencing a surplus from April 1-19, 2024, systemic liquidity in India shifted to a deficit from April 20 to May 24, 2024. This change was driven by an increase in the Government of India’s (GoI) cash balances, which rose from Rs. 1.1 trillion on April 5, 2024, to Rs. 1.5 trillion by April 19, 2024, and further to Rs. 2.4 trillion by May 3, 2024. This buildup in cash was largely due to slower government spending during the Model Code of Conduct and Parliamentary Elections, coupled with robust GST inflows.

Government adjusts treasury bill issuances and G-Sec buybacks

The GoI’s substantial cash position has prompted two significant actions: a reduction in planned gross Treasury bill issuances for Q1 FY2025 by Rs. 600 billion, and the announcement of three rounds of G-sec buybacks worth Rs. 1.6 trillion. However, the total amount accepted across the three auctions in May 2024 was only Rs. 178.5 billion, a mere 11.2% of the notified amount.

Record RBI dividend boosts government cash balances

On May 22, 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) declared a record dividend payout of Rs. 2.11 trillion to the GoI for FY2025, significantly higher than the Rs. 0.9 trillion in FY2024. This payout exceeds the budgeted Rs. 1.5 trillion for aggregate dividends and profits for FY2025, including Rs. 0.5 trillion from PSUs. This windfall is expected to elevate GoI cash balances in the short term until government spending resumes.

Future liquidity and fiscal projections

Given the sizable RBI dividend and anticipated quarter-end tax inflows, combined with expectations of continued sluggish government spending until the full budget in July 2024, the GoI’s cash balances are likely to remain high. Consequently, systemic liquidity is expected to stay tight over the next two months, prompting the RBI to continue conducting variable rate repos (VRRs).

The unexpected large RBI dividend provides the GoI with approximately Rs. 1.0 trillion of additional flexibility for enhanced expenditures or sharper fiscal consolidation than initially outlined in the Interim Budget for FY2025. This could potentially lead to lower G-sec issuances in H2 FY2025, positively affecting bond yields.

Bond market outlook

The 10-year G-sec yield has decreased by 8 basis points in FY2025 to date (up to May 27, 2024). ICRA predicts further easing of the yield leading up to the inclusion of Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) in the J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index, alongside the potential for reduced market borrowings for FY2025. The yield is expected to fluctuate between 6.80% and 7.15% in the remainder of H1 FY2025, potentially reaching the upper limit if expectations for rate cuts by the US Fed and MPC are deferred beyond Q3 FY2025.

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The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond surged to a two-month high on Monday, reaching 7.15 percent, tracking the upward movement in US Treasury yields. This rise marked an increase from the previous Friday’s yield of 7.12 percent. Throughout April, the yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond has witnessed a hardening trend, rising by 10 basis points (bps).

Market experts attribute this increase in yields to the global trend of rising rates, particularly in the US. Naveen Singh, Vice President of ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, noted that India cannot remain an outlier amid the global trend of rising yields. He anticipates that the benchmark yield might stabilize around current levels, awaiting further cues from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Interestingly, a newly auctioned 10-year government bond, introduced for the first time on Friday, swiftly emerged as the second most traded bond, following the benchmark bond closely. Market participants foresee the possibility of this new bond ascending to benchmark status after its subsequent issuance. The government auctioned bonds worth Rs 20,000 crore, with a coupon rate set at 7.10 percent.

Vikas Goel, Managing Director and CEO of PNB Gilts, highlighted that the issuance size of the new 10-year bond suggests its potential to become the benchmark after the second issuance, especially amidst prevailing negative market sentiment.

Further bolstering bond yields on Monday was the rise in overnight interest swap (OIS) rates. The 5-year OIS rate surged by 10 bps, while the 1-year OIS rate increased by 5 bps.

The surge in US Treasury yields was fueled by speculation that the US Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts this year. Strong economic data from the US, including manufacturing and employment figures, reduced the likelihood of rate cuts in June, as indicated by the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.45 percent by the end of Monday’s trading session.

With a keen eye on further developments, market participants await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later in the week for insights into the future rate trajectory. Meanwhile, domestic inflation in India is expected to moderate, as projected by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its recent forecasts for the current financial year.