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Unlocking long-term equity growth: Exploring global trends and market dynamics


Unveiling surprising insights into long-term equity growth, our analysis challenges the conventional wisdom of consistent superior returns. While equity markets are often touted as the go-to for long-term wealth creation, our research reveals a more nuanced reality. Examining 16 major indices over the past three decades, we found that many markets failed to outperform US bonds in real terms, with over half delivering zero or negative returns in USD. Even when considering local currencies, double-digit returns remain elusive across all indices.

A comparative study of Indian and Chinese equity markets sheds light on their contrasting trajectories. Despite China’s seemingly impressive market capitalization, the reality paints a different picture. As China’s economy once outpaced India’s, recent years have seen a reversal of fortunes. With India’s economy and equity markets surpassing China’s, questions arise about the sustainability of this trend. Valuation differentials, such as the Nifty 50 Index trading at 23x trailing earnings compared to Shanghai Composite’s 11x, hint at potential shifts on the horizon.

Breaking free from an investment slump, India has entered a new era of growth. Surpassing the trillion-dollar mark in annual investments for the first time in 2023, the nation’s resurgence is fueled by post-Covid recovery efforts and increased government spending. With $14 trillion allocated to investments since independence, and $8 trillion invested in the last decade alone, India’s trajectory points towards continued expansion. Anticipating a surge in opportunities, savvy investors are poised to capitalize on this upward trend.

While equities remain pivotal for long-term wealth accumulation, our findings underscore the importance of adapting to evolving market dynamics. India’s outperformance against China offers a glimpse into shifting paradigms, yet uncertainties loom. As India’s investment landscape transforms, astute investors are primed to seize emerging opportunities and navigate the complexities of global markets.

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